recruitment

Strength in Numbers: A Data-Driven QPR Transfer Plan (Summer 2026)

How can we use data to find undervalued talent, and where should QPR be looking this summer?

Strength in Numbers: A Data-Driven QPR Transfer Plan (Summer 2026)

As the 2025/26 season draws to a close, we can look back upon yet another mid-table finish for QPR. Results were inconsistent, injury problems plagued another season, and yet I feel there is a lot to be optimistic about going into what will be QPR’s 12th straight season in the Championship.

In terms of recruitment, QPR recorded their greatest net transfer spend in the last 10 seasons, with an expenditure of €11.5m (according to Transfermarkt). There is, understandably, some concern that this expenditure did not seem to translate to immediate success on the pitch. However, with an average age of incoming players of 24.5 (=5th lowest in the last 10 years), or 23.3 if we exclude the free transfer of Ben Hamer (2nd lowest), it is clear that the club is remaining firm in its continued efforts to invest in potential, rather than immediate results. And, for the first season in a long time, I firmly believe this squad is just a handful of transfers away from a top-half finish and a potential play-off challenge.

The net transfer expenditure and average age of signings over the last 10 seasons. Note that some fees are unknown, and thus excluded by Transfermarkt in expenditure estimations. A negative value indicates a greater spend than the total fees received from player departures.

For further discussion of the signs of QPR’s progress this season, I recommend reading this blog post from Loftus IQ, and Andrew Scherer’s article on LoftForWords. With the 2025/26 season as a platform to build upon, I aim to look ahead to this summer’s transfer window, suggesting some viable targets in key positions that I believe need strengthening to continue this progression.

So, looking at QPR’s squad heading into the 2026/27 season, there are 4 positions I considered:

  1. Left-Back
  2. Goalkeeper
  3. Right-Back
  4. Central Midfielder

Methods

When considering the profiles of potential transfer targets, I considered three main factors:

1- Statistical Output

  • Where possible, VAEP/90 (Valuing Actions by Estimating Probability) values were calculated for the past season. I have previously discussed how we can use VAEP to quantify player ability beyond traditional statistics, and the aim here was to initially screen for a shortlist of potential targets.
  • These players were then assessed using data available on FotMob. In each section, I will discuss which statistics were considered to be most important when assessing players.

2- Age

  • During initial screening, VAEP/90 was plotted against age. QPR have a clear model for recruitment, involving signing young players with potential for growth and the potential to be sold.
  • When identifying transfer targets, the recruitment strategy of QPR was considered, with no players over the age of 30 being shortlisted. Players under the age of 25 were prioritised, however in cases where players in their prime years showed exceptional statistical performance, they were considered if the player would represent a good deal for the club (i.e. their statistical performance was relatively greater than their transfer value).

3- Transfer Value

  • Estimated transfer values for each identified player were taken from Transfermarkt. This was considered, alongside age and statistical performance, to determine whether the player was (a) a sensible target for QPR, and (b) a worthwhile investment.

So, taking all these factors into account, who could QPR sign this summer, and how could they improve the team?

Left-Back

The most urgent acquisition needed this summer is a left-back. With the end of Rhys Norrington-Davies’ loan spell at the club, there is just one senior left-back at the club in Ziyad Larkeche, who spent the entirety of the 2025/26 season sidelined with an ACL injury.

Norrington-Davies was a reliable, if largely unremarkable option on the left this season. While his defensive performances impressed at times, I believe we can bring in a better option at left-back, for what will likely be less than the fee demanded by Sheffield United for the permanent transfer of Norrington-Davies (Transfermarkt values the 27-year-old at €2.20m).

So, what should we be looking for in a left-back target? Firstly, they should be a creative threat, creating a high volume of chances and xA per 90. Stéphan has shown a preference for inverted wingers this season, encouraging full-backs to get forward and make overlapping runs into crossing positions, meaning full-backs with the ability to create chances are necessary. Secondly, the player should show strong defensive performance, registering high numbers of defensive contributions and demonstrating the ability to reliably win their duels.

Ideally, a full-back should also show good athleticism, including a high volume of sprints/90. However, as this data is not freely available in many cases, this is harder to account for when identifying potential targets.

Tim Handwerker

Club: Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)

Age: 28

Estimated Transfer Value: €600k

When considering statistical performance, Arminia Bielefeld left-back Tim Handwerker stands out hugely. In terms of VAEP/90, he ranked 3rd (0.38) among all left-backs analysed. In simpler terms, this means that over the course of a 90-minute match, Handwerker’s actions add 0.38 goals worth of value to his team.

This positive effect is largely due to his ability to create chances. His numbers are incredibly impressive, recording an xA of 0.3 per 90 (higher than top-ranked full-back for xA in the Championship Ryan Manning [0.25]) and creating 2.8 chances per 90, placing him in the top percentile among full-backs in Tier 2 European leagues.

His defensive performance is equally impressive, registering 7.21 defensive contributions per 90 (which would place him 15th in the Championship), winning the majority of his ground duels (64%) and aerial duels (58%).

Having watched some of his performances, his standout quality is undeniably his ball delivery, making him a threat particularly from deeper crossing areas.

Handwerker pairs this crossing ability with a desire to get forward, frequently making overlapping and underlapping runs forward into dangerous positions from which he can deliver into the box.

Additionally, Handwerker’s elite delivery makes him a dead-ball specialist. This could make him incredibly valuable to QPR, who are in need of a left-footed set piece taker.

At 28, Handwerker is in his prime years. Although he is unlikely to be a player with potential to develop and be sold, with an estimated transfer value of €600k, he could represent a real bargain for QPR.

My only concern regarding Tim Handwerker is his ability to adjust to the physical demands of the Championship. At 28, playing at left-back, it is crucial that he can adjust to the pace of the game, as he is unlikely to develop physically in the future. As the 2. Bundesliga publishes physical data for all players, we can seek to quantify his physical abilities. With a top speed of 33.95 km/h this season, he ranks 117th among all players in the 2. Bundesliga. Furthermore, his 9.2km covered/90 is lower than the 9.8km average for full-backs identified by the CIES football observatory. Therefore, despite his excellent technical ability and creative output, his success at QPR may be constrained by his physical ability. Nevertheless, I do believe Handwerker could represent a brilliant deal for the club.

Samukelo Kabini

Club: Molde (Eliteserien)

Age: 22

Estimated Transfer Value: €2m

Another left-back option, young Molde defender Samukelo Kabini looks to be a real prospect. Statistically, Kabini produces relatively strong creative output, with an xA of 0.18 per 90 (equivalent to =7th among Championship full-backs) and 0.96 chances created per 90. However, where he arguably stands out the most is in his defensive numbers, registering 7.7 defensive contributions per 90, and winning 6.64 duels per 90 (despite winning a relatively lower proportion of his duels). Notably, he is a frequent tackler, registering 3.65 tackles per 90, which would place him 3rd in the Championship among full-backs.

Having watched some of his highlights, this tenacity in defence was immediately apparent. What was particularly encouraging was his desire to bring the ball up the pitch after winning it, driving forward and linking up with teammates on the overlap.

I do believe there are some questions as to whether he is technically strong enough to play comfortably in the Championship, with a dribble success rate of just 44%. At 22, however, Kabini seems to be a player with great potential, and one who should absolutely be on QPR’s radar.

In many ways, Kabini’s profile is the opposite of Handwerker’s, with the former impressing primarily with his defensive abilities, upon which he builds with some quality going forward. On the other hand, Handwerker stands out for his incredible ability to create chances, with the defensive side of his game mainly accessory to this.

Oliver Zandén

Club: Brommapojkarna (Allsvenskan)

Age: 24

Estimated Transfer Value: €700k

Finally, Swedish outfit Brommapojkarna’s Oliver Zandén could be a good option at left-back.

Statistically, while not as strong as Handwerker or Kabini, Zandén shows good creative and defensive output, particularly in his chance creation (1.21 chances created per 90), duel winning ability (60% ground duel win rate) and number of defensive contributions per 90 (8.68).

Admittedly I had some difficulty finding footage of Zandén in action, so I cannot comment on his tendencies in play. However, from statistics alone, and with an estimated value of €700k, he is definitely a player to consider.

Goalkeeper

Next, I think most QPR fans will agree that if the club is to progress, a new goalkeeper is needed. I do sympathise for Joe Walsh, who has had a tough first Championship season, however the underlying numbers suggest improvements are required.

This season, QPR registered the 2nd most goals conceded (after Sheffield Wednesday), however according to Opta, recorded the 9th best expected goals against (xGA), giving us the worst xGA underperformance in the league by some margin (15.83 compared to 2nd-ranked Watford’s 10.96). This indicates that QPR’s overall defensive play is relatively strong, although poor goalkeeping is costing us. This is only confirmed by the fact that Joe Walsh produced the lowest goals prevented in the league at -7.7*, and second-choice Paul Nardi ranked 9th worst at -2.1.

*Note that these values differ between Opta and FotMob. FotMob records Walsh as preventing -6.4 goals at 5th worst.

So, it is clear that a new goalkeeper is required. First and foremost, we need a shot-stopper. I believe the metric which best represents this is goals prevented/90. Furthermore, a consistent weakness of recent QPR keepers is a struggle to command their area when balls are delivered into the box (Nardi, looking at you…). We can look to address this weakness by considering the number of high claims per 90 a keeper makes. Finally, a keeper which shows good versatility in distribution, including strong long ball delivery and comfort with the ball at their feet, would suit Stéphan’s relatively flexible approach in build-up.

Calum Ward

Club: Motherwell (Scottish Premiership)

Age: 25

Estimated Transfer Value: €800k

Motherwell’s Calum Ward could be the perfect solution to QPR’s goalkeeping troubles. His shot-stopping numbers this season have been incredibly impressive, registering a save % of 73.7, and preventing a total of 7.98 goals, which would rank him top in the Championship according to FotMob. While only standing at 6ft2, Ward demonstrates a strong command of his area, recording 1.14 high claims per 90 (86th percentile among European tier 2 goalkeepers).

In terms of distribution, Ward registered a pass completion of 82.9% and a long ball completion of 47.5%, demonstrating an impressive ability to distribute the ball.

At just 25, Ward has the potential to develop his game further and become QPR’s long-term №1, while also bringing valuable experience from the Scottish Premiership, where he has quickly become an integral part of a Motherwell team that finished 4th this season. With a transfer value of €800k, and rumoured interest from Celtic and Wycombe, QPR should move quickly to secure his signature.

Quentin Braat

Club: Rodez (Ligue 2)

Age: 28

Estimated Transfer Value: €700k

Ligue 2 Goalkeeper of the Season Quentin Braat has had a fantastic season for promotion hopefuls Rodez. He is a brilliant shot-stopper, preventing 9.81 goals this season (0.29 per 90), with a save % of 76.1.

His distribution numbers are less impressive, however, and registering just 0.91 high claims per 90, ranking him in the 60th percentile among Ligue 2 goalkeepers, this is an area of his game to potentially be improved. Regardless, at 6ft4 he is a physical presence in the box.

In his prime years at 28, and with experience in both Ligue 2 and LaLiga 2, Braat could bring some valuable experience as first-choice keeper.

Elias Hadaya

Club: Sandefjord (Eliteserien)

Age: 27

Estimated Transfer Value: €600k

Playing for Sandefjord in Norway’s top division, Elias Hadaya is another player which could be brought to W12 as a new №1.

Hadaya is a strong shot stopper, ranking highly in the Eliteserien in goals prevented (2.78; 88th percentile) and save % (70.1; 76th percentile). In 2025, he recorded 0.9 high claims per 90, which ranked him in the 74th percentile in the Eliteserien.

Elias Hadaya also has experience on the international stage, earning 8 caps for the Syrian national team, including 3 appearances at the Fifa Arab Cup in 2023, where Syria reached the semi-finals.

Honourable Mention

Noel Törnqvist (Loan from Como) —

I have generally looked to identify potential goalkeepers in their prime years, as I believe the club view Joe Walsh or Murphy Cooper as long-term options, and will be looking for a more experienced keeper to take the helm this coming season. Additionally, the club seems to prefer to conduct permanent transfers over loans when possible, but I couldn’t help but include Noel Törnqvist of Como.

Törnqvist would be an absolutely brilliant addition on loan if other transfer options do not pan out. At 24 years of age, Törnqvist was signed by Fàbregas’ side as their future long-term keeper after a brilliant season at Allsvenskan side Mjällby.

Törnqvist is incredibly comfortable with the ball at his feet (completing 27.28 passes per 90 with a completion rate of 78.8%), and a brilliant shot-stopper. In the 2025 season he prevented 11.33 goals with a save percentage of 81.6%, which would make him comfortably the best shot-stopper in the EFL Championship.

He is yet to make an appearance for Como, and may therefore be available on loan next season.

Right-Back

Like left-back, right-back is a position which has suffered from a lack of depth. Mbengue has spent the past season as QPR’s first-choice right-back, despite initially being signed as a centre-back. In many ways, Mbengue suits this role, notably using his pace to get forward into attacking areas and stretch the defence, an attribute which also helps him in recovery. However, his weaknesses in the final third limit his creative influence, producing just 0.03 xA/90, creating 0.37 chances with a crossing success rate of 20.6%. Additionally, he has a tendency to — often needlessly — fly into tackles, resulting in Mbengue picking up 12 yellow cards and 1 red.

While I do believe Mbengue brings value to the team, and has largely been a successful signing, I do think that if we are to progress as a squad without a change in system, a more natural right-back option is required.

When looking for a right-back, like a left-back, it is important to consider creative output (xA and chances created per 90), as well as defensive abilities (defensive contributions and duels won per 90).

Laurin Curda

Club: Paderborn (2. Bundesliga)

Age: 24

Estimated Transfer Value: €2m

Recently helping his side Paderborn achieve promotion to the Bundesliga with an extra-time goal, Laurin Curda has been a standout performer in the 2.Bundesliga this season. He ranks highly (3rd overall) among right-backs analysed in VAEP/90, and creating 1.62 chances per 90, he is a creative threat.

Playing as a wing-back in Paderborn’s back 5 system, he frequently gets forward into advanced crossing (0.97 crosses/90) and even goalscoring positions, averaging 1.75 shots/90.

As a RWB, there may be some concerns over his ability to play in Stéphan’s preferred back 4 system. However, Curda shows relatively strong defensive performance as well, averaging 6.48 defensive contributions per 90 (83rd percentile among European tier 2 full-backs), and winning 7.48 ground duels / 2.88 aerial duels per 90.

However, like current R’s right-back Mbengue, Curda has a tendency to fly into tackles, committing 1.88 fouls/90, picking up 7 yellow cards this season. Additionally, with reported interest from Bundesliga clubs and others abroad, and Paderborn reportedly looking for a fee of up to €5m, Curda may be a difficult target to acquire.

Lucas Buadés

Club: Le Mans (Ligue 2)

Age: 28

Estimated Transfer Value: €700k

At 28 years of age, Buadés may be slightly older than the age profile generally targeted by QPR, however he has put up some impressive numbers for Le Mans in Ligue 2 this season.

Like Laurin Curda, he has played primarily as a RWB this season, getting into advanced positions, producing 0.17 xA/90, with 1.01 chance created/90, and 1.05 successful crosses/90. Despite playing in a largely attacking role (registering 3.08 touches in the opposition box/90), where Buadés arguably stands out is in his defensive performance.

He registers 7.84 defensive contributions/90, with a ground duel win rate of 59% (winning 6.78 per 90), and an aerial duel win rate of 66.2%.

Overall, a profile like Buadés could represent an improvement on Mbengue. While the biggest concern is his age, his value of €700k could make him an affordable, yet effective option.

Gary Magnée

Club: Cercle Brugge (Jupiler Pro League)

Age: 26

Estimated Transfer Value: €1.5m

Finally, Gary Magnée could represent a good option at right-back. With a VAEP/90 of 0.23 — ranking 20th — he is not as much of a statistical standout as Laurin Curda. Regardless, looking at his stats in the Jupiler Pro League this season, he could absolutely offer value at right-back.

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Magnée’s standout ability is his creativity. Producing 0.21 xA/90, his chance creation per 90 ranks in the 98th percentile among his peers. This creativity in possession is likely related to the high number of long passes and crosses he produces per 90 (3.08 and 2.43 per 90, respectively). Like Tim Handwerker at left-back, his accuracy of ball delivery means he is a set-piece taker for his team.

Despite not winning as many duels as Curda or Buadés, Magnée does show signs of strong defensive performance, including a highly impressive 8.29 defensive contributions per 90, consisting primarily of ball recoveries (5.73 per 90). Regardless, this inability to win his duels makes him a slightly less appealing option than Curda or Buadés, as this may compromise his ability to adapt to the physicality of the Championship, despite his otherwise impressive numbers.

Central Midfielder

Finally, we should be in the market for at least one midfielder this summer. With Isaac Hayden departing following the expiry of his contract, QPR are left with just 3 defensive midfielders at the club, in Nicolas Madsen, Jonathan Varane and Kieran Morgan. And, with rumours of Jonathan Varane’s exit this summer circulating following a rejected bid from St Etienne in January, QPR should look to bring in another midfielder to provide valuable depth.

Looking at the midfielders currently at the club, I believe there are two clear profiles. R’s Player of the Year Nicolas Madsen excels in possession, ranking in the top 10% of Championship midfielders in chances created (1.71), and the top 20% in xA (0.14). While he does win the majority of his duels (63%), he is less involved in the defensive side of the game with just 5.1 defensive actions/90 (50th percentile) and 3.7 ground duels won/90 (18th percentile). On the other hand, Jonathan Varane is most effective out of possession, winning 5.92 duels/90 — placing him in the top quartile of Championship midfielders — and averaging 7.52 defensive actions/90 (top 10% of Championship midfielders).

Youngster Kieran Morgan does not excel in one area particularly of his game. However, as Stéphan deployed Morgan alongside Varane as Madsen’s replacement after his injury against Southampton in February, it appears as though this is the role where Morgan will get most game time.

Therefore, I believe it is clear we need to add another defensively strong midfielder to our squad. In this sense, I will be looking for players with good defensive output and a strong duel-winning ability. However, looking to potentially improve on Jonathan Varane, thus allowing his exit, the player should also demonstrate strong ability on the ball, in both ball progression (through carries and passes) and chance creation. An all-action midfielder profile would add some much-needed versatility to the QPR midfield, hopefully playing to Madsen’s strengths well.

Sverre Sandal

Club: Luton Town (EFL League One)

Age: 22

Estimated Transfer Value: €800k

When analysing the 2025 Eliteserien season, young midfielder Sverre Sandal stood out statistically. Playing for KFUM, Sandal demonstrated comfort on the ball and tenacity in defence, putting up some incredibly impressive numbers which earned him a move to Luton Town in February 2026. Bizarrely, Sandal has played just 7 minutes for the Hatters, yet there is rumoured interest from Premier League side Leeds, who I suspect are fans from his time at KFUM.

Looking at his defensive output, Sandal produces 5.87 defensive actions/90, including an impressive 3.47 tackles/90, which would rank him 3rd in the Championship. Beyond this, Sandal’s 6ft3 frame makes him an aerial presence, winning 1.9 aerial duels/90 with a win rate of 62%, undoubtedly making him an important presence in the box during set pieces. His long legs give him the ability to win the ball on the ground equally well, with a ground duel win rate of 57% and 7.1 duels won/90, exceeding Varane’s output.

Beyond this, Sandal is comfortable and highly involved in possession, averaging 50.3 successful passes/90 (exceeding Madsen’s 35.6), with a pass completion rate of 84%. However, creating just 0.99 chances per 90, this high involvement could indicate reliability in possession, rather than creativity. Despite this, Sandal still created 0.15 xA/90, which narrowly exceeds Madsen’s output of 0.14, suggesting the few chances he creates are better scoring opportunities.

At just 22 years of age, Sandal has bags of potential. However, he does show some immaturity to his game, such as a tendency to fly into tackles. This resulted in Sandal picking up 9 yellow cards and 1 red card in just 26 matches for KFUM. Additionally, the seemingly inexplicable exclusion of Sandal from Luton Town’s squad could indicate potential issues with mentality (although this is merely speculative). Regardless, I believe Sandal is a brilliant prospect that QPR should be looking at this summer.

Silas Andersen

Club: Häcken (Allsvenskan)

Age: 21

Estimated Transfer Value: €2m

Another player from a Scandinavian league — the Swedish Allsvenskan in this case — is 21-year-old Silas Andersen. The 6ft2 Danish midfielder (sound familiar…?) greatly impressed for BK Häcken last season, registering some impressive numbers.

Andersen registered 9.32 defensive contributions /90 last season, which would make him comfortably the most defensively involved central midfielder in the Championship (and so far this season this number has risen to an incredible 11.4 contributions/90). Andersen does win the majority of his duels (59% of ground duels, and 56% of aerial duels), and records an impressive 7.9 duels won/90. Watching some of his highlights, this eagerness in defence is incredibly apparent.

Andersen is also technically strong and comfortable with the ball at his feet, making him press-resistant and composed under pressure. He records 98.1 touches/90, completing an impressive 65.9 successful passes/90 with a success rate of 87.5%. He shows great intention with his passing, creating 1.1 chances/90 and generating 0.09 xA/90. Beyond this, Andersen often gets forward into attacking areas, recording 1.2 shots/90 and generating 0.1 xG/90.

Like Sandal, Andersen’s robust tackling can lead to trouble, picking up 11 yellow cards in just 26 games in the 2025 season. Furthermore, Andersen has attracted interest from teams such as Celtic, Rangers and Sporting CP. With an expected fee of around £6m, QPR may not currently be able to afford to compete for Andersen’s signature. Regardless, the sale of Varane could generate the funds necessary to field an offer for a replacement with great potential.

Elliot Watt

Club: Motherwell (Scottish Premiership)

Age: 26

Estimated Transfer Value: €2m

Despite being slightly older at 26-years-old, Motherwell’s Elliot Watt is another brilliant option in the midfield.

While not demonstrating as impressive defensive performance as Sandal or Andersen, Watt still registers a respectable 5.8 defensive contributions/90 and an impressive 7.5 recoveries/90. He does also narrowly win the majority of his duels at 53.5%, leading to a total of 5.3 duels won/90. Where Watt provides most value is in possession, registering 102.4 touches/90.

Watt is a versatile and highly-involved midfielder, completing 72.8 passes/90 and creating 1.2 chances/90, generating 0.14 xA/90 (equal to Nicolas Madsen). Additionally, he is a brilliant ball-carrier, with a dribble success rate of 69.7%. Watt’s creativity could, therefore, limit the impact another Madsen injury could have on our midfield.

The Motherwell player has attracted significant interest from Rangers, with a fee of £3m expected. Therefore, while we may have to compete for his signature, Watt is a name that QPR should consider.

Conclusion

Here, I aimed to use traditional statistical analysis (via Fotmob data) and more advanced model-based analysis (using VAEP) to suggest transfer targets in priority positions for QPR. I believe we have a strong team to build upon this season, and with a successful transfer window this summer, QPR could become real contenders for play-offs.

I do want to note that for this article, I purposefully aimed to explore players in foreign leagues that the fanbase may be less aware of. Of course, there is a wealth of talent in the lower leagues of England, and given QPR’s recent transfer history I would not be surprised if the club recruit from League One again (Sam Tickle is a name many fans will be aware of, and a player QPR have recently been linked with, for example). Therefore, while the focus of this article was non-domestic talent, the names presented in this article are by no means exhaustive.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen how the summer window goes for QPR, and whether the signings we make will immediately improve the squad or will be part of the longer-term project. Regardless, looking forward to next season I think R’s fans have a lot to be excited about.

As always, thanks for reading, and especially thank you for making it this far (I appreciate this is a long article)! I always appreciate interaction, so let me know your thoughts, or if there are any names you think I’ve missed!

* Thumbnail Credit: QPR