Picking up thirteen points from a possible twenty-four in the first eight games of this season, QPR currently sit sixth in the league, a promising platform in what is an ambitious season for Rangers. However, points alone rarely tell the full story; this early in the season, many factors including luck and fixture difficulty can have a strong confounding effect on the league table. So, before we get ahead of ourselves, it is important to establish whether QPR’s league position is well-deserved or not.
The first of four international breaks this season provides a perfect opportunity to take stock of the season so far, dig into the numbers and examine what QPR are doing well and, more importantly, where there is room for improvement. Of course, with just 8 games played, the sample size for any analysis is small. This makes it near impossible to draw firm conclusions from the data, but we should still be able to see some early signals in the noise. Here, I will consider how the team’s style and output compared to last season, both in and out of possession.
I would also recommend reading Andrew Scherrer’s article on LoftForWords for further breakdown of the numbers, put into context alongside the rest of the league. It’s a great piece of analysis, even if he did beat me to the ‘International Breakdown’ title (I was quite proud of that one as well).
The Stats
All the strip plots below present z-scores, which measure a value’s deviation from the mean (i.e. if z = 2.3, the value is 2.3 standard deviations away from the mean). In simpler terms, we can use z-scores to determine whether teams are overperforming (z > 0), underperforming (z < 0) or performing on average (z = ~0) in any metric. These scores are useful when presented graphically, however don’t carry much value when reported in-text. Therefore, I will also refer to percentile ranks (where a higher percentile rank represents stronger performance, with 100th being the maximum) throughout this article.
Note: All the figures presented below are interactive, meaning you can view relevant metrics for each team by hovering over / clicking on them.
Out Of Possession
Defending
I will start by considering QPR’s performance out of possession, an area in need of improvement from last season. In 2025/26, QPR conceded 1.25 xGA per match, the 11th lowest in the league; a respectable mid-table performance. However, QPR massively underperformed their xGA, conceding 1.6 goals per match. This was the 2nd worst goals conceded record in the league, behind only Sheffield Wednesday (who, to put this into perspective, were relegated in February).
In the first 8 games of this season, QPR have recorded 1.2 xGA per match, a slight improvement on last season which ranks us in the 75th percentile. We rank similarly well in other metrics, including shots faced per match (11.38, 87th percentile) and the % of these shots which are in the box (60.4%, 75th percentile). These numbers suggest that QPR are successfully denying the opposition meaningful chances and remaining compact around the box.
In an encouraging improvement on last season, we are currently overperforming our xGA per match by a value of 0.32, the 4th best performance in the league (87th percentile). However, some nuance is required when interpreting this overperformance, and it must be treated with caution so early in the season.
Generally, xGA overperformance is often the result of strong goalkeeping performance or shooting error from the opposition (which may be affected by the defenders’ pressure, etc). So far, QPR have faced 0.96 xGOT (a measure of opposition shot quality) per match. Subtracted from the 1.2 xGA faced, we can see that 0.24 xG is not converted to on-target threat per match as a result of shooter error; this accounts for 75% of our 0.32 xGA per match overperformance. The other 25% is attributed to goalkeeper Pierce Charles, who has prevented 0.08 goals per match this season.
This graph informs us about what is responsible for a team’s xGA under/overperformance, considering shooter error and goalkeeping performance. For each team, the combined influence of these two factors produces the net xGA performance.
To understand how we can interpret this graph we can consider, for example, Norwich; a shot error of +.01 suggests that the opponents are actually shooting more poorly than expected by their xG. However, goalkeeper Kovacevic has prevented -0.67 goals per game, bringing their net xGA underperformance to -0.57. Another interesting example here is Bolton, whose opponents have been finishing far more impressively than expected (-0.43 per game). However, Bolton goalkeepers Bazunu and Bonham, as QPR fans will be aware, have been able to prevent enough goals (+0.28 per game) to bring their net underperformance to -0.15.
In QPR’s case, it seems that poor finishing can largely explain the xGA overperformance. We are one of 3 teams in the top 5 overperformers where this is the case (alongside Watford and Swansea). Shooter error is not particularly stable over time, and so we should expect some regression towards 0 as the season progresses. However, our low overall xGA suggests this is not a cause for particular concern; although we may concede more goals, we should still concede considerably less than other, leakier defences.
Overall, QPR’s defence is already looking harder to break down than last season. What makes this pattern particularly interesting is that this does not coincide with a change in pressing style or defensive setup.
Pressing + Defensive Style
Last season, QPR played a hybrid press; we set up in a compact, narrow 4-4-2 mid-block, shifting into more aggressive high press when certain triggers occurred. This season, despite a change of in-possession shape, QPR have continued to utilise this tried-and-tested defensive approach.
QPR have recorded the highest PPDA (17.7) in the league so far this season. Additionally, QPR’s start distance (a proxy of pressing height*)* is the 4th lowest in the league (39.4m), placing us in the 16th percentile. Alongside our ability to keep the opponent outside of our box, these statistics start to paint a clear picture of QPR as a team who are happy to sit back and let the opponent play in front of them.
However, the statistics also indicate that QPR are capable of utilising a high press when the opportunity arises. We rank in the 50th percentile for high turnovers per match (6.13), a much higher performance than expected for the team with the highest PPDA in the league. Additionally, we have demonstrated an ability to capitalise on these high turnovers; we rank in the 75th percentile for the percentage of these high turnovers which result in a shot (22.45%). Ultimately, however, QPR’s out-of-possession approach is still largely defined by the compact mid-block principles displayed last season.
We can also learn a lot about QPR’s defensive style by considering the volume of defensive contributions recorded per match so far this season.
Interestingly, looking at this plot it’s clear that QPR are performing below average in defensive actions such as tackles (41st percentile), blocks (37th percentile),and clearances (12th percentile), even when adjusted for possession. These could be incorrectly interpreted as indicative of weak or passive defensive performances. However, in reality these metrics tell us about QPR’s defensive style, rather than quality.
To illustrate this point, we can consider tackles. Tackling is often reactive, referred to by Xabi Alonso as ‘a last resort’; a higher number of tackles across the team is not necessarily a good sign. To highlight the care we must take when interpreting tackling numbers, we can consider a classic cautionary tale; the sale of Jaap Stam by Manchester United in 2001. This transfer was (at least partially) motivated by the observation that Stam’s tackling numbers had been declining. This was interpreted as a sign that Stam was past his best. In reality, the decline in tackling volume was instead due to an increase in interceptions; Stam was reading the game well, winning the ball earlier in the possession chain and rarely needing to resort to tackling.
In a similar vein, although ranking poorly in tackling volume, QPR perform well in terms of interceptions, recording 9 per match (75th percentile when adjusted for possession). Considering QPR’s defensive setup, this performance may indicate that we are successfully executing our mid-block; the defence is compact, the team are reading the game well, denying access to dangerous areas and blocking passing lanes to force turnovers.
Ultimately, despite playing with largely consistent style since last season, QPR have seen an improvement in their defensive performance. We should expect some regression over the course of the season as the opposition start to take their chances, however fans should be reassured by the fact that our xG conceded is among the best in the division. Next, I will discuss some of the changes we have seen in our in-possession approach.
In Possession
General Play
Firstly, we can consider QPR’s general play in possession. Last season, playing primarily in a 4-4-2 shape, QPR averaged 46% possession (18th). So far this season, this has risen slightly to 50.5% (12th), coinciding with a change in primary formation to a 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3 (however the 4-4-2 has still been utilised at times). With this comes an increase in the number of attacks starting from build-up sequences this season, with a value of 2.5 per match. This places QPR in the ~80th percentile.
Interestingly, however, QPR have not lost their counter-attacking edge which brought them success last season; QPR rank in the 85th percentile for direct attacks per match, with 42.9% of attacks recorded on Opta coming from direct moves, and a direct speed of 2.03 (83rd percentile).
This mixed approach ensures that we can be a threat when we are expected to dominate possession against weaker opposition (something we struggled with last season), as well as still being capable of attacking space on the transition, particularly useful against the more dominant, high-pressing sides in the league. It also means that we have recorded a high number of total attacks (35), placing us in the 87th percentile.
Chance Creation
The numbers suggest that QPR are successfully transforming these attacking opportunities into chances. We record an average of 100 successful final third passes per match, ranking us in the 87th percentile. We also rank in the 95th percentile for through balls per match (1.5).
There is room for improvement in terms of crossing success, as despite attempting 14.75 crosses per match (70th percentile), we only record a success rate of 20.3% (45th percentile). This does raise the question as to whether creating opportunities through crosses suits our squad, particularly with Rumarn Burrell set to lead the line for the foreseeable future in Richard Kone’s absence.
Chance Conversion
Last season, QPR produced 1.19 xG per match, the 7th lowest in the league. However, with multiple attacking players meeting or exceeding their xG, we were able to overperform our xG by 0.13, scoring 1.32 goals per game. So far this season, our xG output has improved greatly, as we produce 1.66 NPxG per game (79th percentile). This seems to suggest our overall attacking play has improved, although a larger sample of games against a wider range of opponents is required to determine this conclusively.
Despite creating many chances, we are struggling to convert them into goals; we have scored 1.25 goals per game so far this season. This value represents an underperformance of -0.41, one of the worst xG performances in the league (16th percentile).
As with our current xGA overperformance, we should expect some regression towards 0 (i.e. meeting our xG) over the course of the season; poor shooting form is not stable. Therefore, our current underperformance is not a cause for particular concern.
In fact, this early in the season, underperformance of a high xG is preferable over overperformance of a low xG, as we saw last season. When a team overperforms its xG, it is largely the result of individual players’ finishing form/ability. Despite having a tangible outcome on points - ultimately xG doesn’t win games, goals do - a downturn in form or injury can lead to the loss of a source of goals that the team may be reliant on.
Of course, our current underperformance may become problematic if it persists later into the season, as we have already missed out on points through our struggles in front of goal (see Bolton at home). However, this early in the season it’s worth considering the bigger picture, which suggests that we are a better attacking team than we were last season.
Key Takeaways
Stylistically, QPR have retained many of the same principles of play seen last season; particularly out of possession. However, so far this season we have seen the introduction of some new ideas in possession.
To revisit the purpose of this article, we can look to answer the question of whether QPR’s current league position is deserved or not. While our underlying creative and defensive numbers are largely positive, we should consider the difficulty of the fixtures we have played so far in order to put these numbers into context. 5 of our 8 games were played against opposition currently in the lower half of the table**. Against these opposition, we averaged 2.2 points per game, compared to 0.67 against upper table opposition. Furthermore, against the upper-half opposition we recorded 0.92 xG on average; against the lower half we recorded 2.1 xG. Similarly, against upper-half opposition we conceded 1.41 xGA, compared to 1.07 against lower-half opposition.
** There is a degree of circularity here; so early in the season, the gap between the top half and bottom half of the table is small. This means that the teams we collected more points against would logically be positioned lower in the table. Regardless, it is still an important contextual consideration.
These are, of course, very small subsamples, however it does seem that we perform less impressively on a whole, against stronger sides (as you might expect). This does suggest that our kinder fixture schedule may have slightly flattered our performances. Difficult October fixtures against Swansea at home and away at West Ham should prove more difficult ties from which to assess our team.
Despite this, I do still believe we should not overlook some early signs of progression this season, as the numbers all point to the conclusion that we have improved as a team overall since last season. It is very early days; there is still a lot of football left to play, and plenty of time for an injury crisis to derail our season. However, I do believe there is cause for cautious optimism here.