Last season’s League One play-off winners, Bolton Wanderers, kicked off their season with a 2–1 win over a poor Preston North End side. QPR will face Bolton off the back of a convincing 3–1 victory over Portsmouth and will be keen to continue their winning start. To do so, they must look to exploit some of Bolton’s weaknesses.
To find out how Bolton could approach Saturday’s match at Loftus Road, I reviewed their performance against Preston. Of course, just one match against relatively poor opposition cannot tell us exactly how Bolton will play throughout the season. However, at this early stage, it can give a useful indication of the core principles guiding Steven Schumacher’s side. Many of these principles will be familiar to QPR fans, with Bolton showing similarities to Stéphan’s QPR side last season.
In Possession
Against Preston, Bolton set up in a 4–2–3–1 in possession shape.
In this shape, McAtee acts much like a second striker, linking up with physical forward Dalby; Bolton’s opener was scored from a direct move in which Dalby put McAtee through on goal:
Build-Up
From goal-kicks, Bolton generally looked to play through the first line of Preston’s 4–4–2 press. To facilitate this, goalkeeper Bonham would occasionally step into the defensive line. This allowed Bolton’s full-backs (Conway and Stephenson) to push up the pitch, with Bonham’s addition to the backline creating a 3 vs. 2 overload.
The full-backs, pushing higher, usually set up staggered, with one offering a shorter wide option, and the other sitting further forward:
Progression
As the ball was moved into the middle third — usually through the full-backs — Bolton looked to play more directly, increasing the tempo of their attack. On more than one occasion, this involved the ball being laid off to a central midfielder, ‘setting’ it for him to seek out runners with a long ball:
In order to make the most of these long balls, Bolton looked to create space to attack. With the Bolton wingers dropping deep to show for the ball, the Preston full-backs would track, leaving space to be exploited in the wide channels. In both clips above, we can see Stephenson making runs from deep to attack this space. To ensure that the Bolton full-backs are unable to receive the ball in space from similar moves, it’s important that QPR’s wingers track their men, and the defensive line shifts across to cover the space when the full-back steps up.
A passage in which the winger successfully tracks his man, and the defensive line shifts. The attack is cut out.
In this scenario, we can see how Bolton looked to create and attack space directly. This is a key idea for Schumacher’s side, who also looked particularly dangerous during attacking transitions. In particular, pacey winger Thierry Gale threatened to punish when Preston committed men forward.
Gale’s speed made him a constant threat on the counter, and he frequently drove Bolton forward, completing 4 dribbles over the course of the match. Gale also scored Bolton’s 2nd goal of the match from an attacking transition with a well-placed finish:
Final Third
As Bolton approached the final third, they looked to shift the ball into wide areas, with 78% of their attacks coming from either flank. They attempted 12 crosses from the wide channels, however they struggled to connect with anyone in the box, completing just 1.
Bolton also struggled to create meaningful chances around the box, taking 7 shots inside the box with an average xG of 0.12 and 8 shots outside the box, with an average xG of 0.03. With just 14 touches in the box, and an xG/shot of 0.07 (5th lowest in Championship in both metrics), QPR should be aware that if they can remain compact and deny entries into the box, Bolton should struggle to create many meaningful chances.
Crucially, QPR must be alert and aware of the threat Bolton pose on the counter. To nullify this threat, a strong rest defence structure is required. In particular, leaving a player with excellent recovery pace, like Amadou Mbengue, in the rest defence could help prevent a 1-on-1 situation emerging.
Out of Possession
Similarly to QPR, Bolton set up out of possession in a 4–4–2 mid-block shape, with McAtee stepping up alongside Dalby to form the first line of the press.
However, when Preston looked to play short from goal-kicks, Bolton utilised a high man-to-man press. Against Preston’s static 4–2–3–1, this was generally effective, as the midfield two could stay tight to Preston’s holding midfielders. However, against a 4–3–3 (or even a more dynamic 4–2–3–1), some weaknesses of this approach can be exploited.
Here, we see a scenario in which Sheehan steps up to mark the opposition №6, Thompson. He is able to do so as he is not being pinned by another midfielder. However, when Erhahon steps off Preston’s №10 Devine to mark McCann, Sheehan must drop to take over the marking responsibility.
This allows Thompson to remain unmarked in a large pocket of space between the lines. Preston ultimately do not exploit this, instead opting to play forward directly. However, it highlights a specific weakness of a man-to-man 4–4–2 against a 3-man midfield, in which the numerical advantage can allow the attacking team to break down the press. This can be acheived through both through manipulation of the opposition press and clever rotations to find space in the middle third. This is something QPR can look to exploit against Bolton; in a 4–3–3, the 2 №8’s pin the defending midfielders, guaranteeing a one-man advantage in the build-up. Alternatively, in a 4–2–3–1, the 2 holding midfielders may be able to occupy the defending midfielders, opening the central channel for the №10 to drop into and receive:
The 4–3–3 can allow the team to bypass the first line of pressure. If the receiving №6 is particularly press-resistant, this can be a very effective way to progress.
How a dynamic 4–2–3–1 can open the central channel, allowing the №10 to drop into space and receive without direct pressure.
By utilising a triple pivot in midfield, QPR will be able to find ways to beat Bolton’s press effectively, finding solutions to play forward through the lines.
Bolton’s man-to-man tendencies can also create vulnerabilities further up the pitch. On both flanks, there were occasions where the Preston winger dropped, causing Bolton’s full-backs to step up. This created space in the wide channels to be exploited on the counter:
This is something QPR may be able to exploit. In particular, in a 4–3–3 formation, the space created by the dropping wingers could be exploited by the 2 №8’s (likely Chair and Vale):
Of course, it is very possible that Bolton adopt a less intense pressing game against QPR, particularly with the game being played away from home. In that case, QPR’s game should shift away from exploiting pressing weaknesses, and towards how to break down a 4–4–2 mid/low-block. This will likely be achieved through rotations and third-man runs in the wide channels.
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, there are some weaknesses in Bolton’s game that QPR should be able to exploit, in particular due to their imperfect man-to-man press. However, QPR must be wary of Bolton’s threat on the counter, and avoid leaving space in wide areas to be attacked. Although I predict that QPR should get a result in their first home game of the season, Bolton are a team with the capacity to punish mistakes, and should be respected.